Executive Summary

The maritime domain is emerging as the principal arena of strategic competition in the twenty-first century. While the twentieth century witnessed continental wars and industrial competition, the coming decades will be characterized by contestation over sea lanes, underwater infrastructure, energy corridors, critical minerals, Arctic trade routes, and maritime influence. For India, a nation whose economic lifelines depend overwhelmingly on maritime commerce, the challenge is clear: either evolve into a true blue-water naval power or risk strategic vulnerability in an increasingly contested world.

As India approaches the centenary of independence in 2047, the nation must adopt a long-term maritime strategy that aligns with its economic ambitions, geopolitical aspirations, and security requirements. The Indian Ocean Region (IOR), historically considered India’s natural sphere of influence, is experiencing unprecedented strategic competition driven primarily by China’s maritime expansion, increasing great-power rivalry, and growing instability across West Asia, East Africa, and the Indo-Pacific.

This report argues that India should pursue a carrier-centric naval modernization strategy centered upon a five-aircraft-carrier force by 2047. Such a structure should include two conventionally powered carriers dedicated to the Eastern and Western Naval Commands and three nuclear-powered CATOBAR aircraft carriers equipped with Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch Systems (EMALS) capable of sustained global deployments.

The rationale extends beyond conventional deterrence. India’s interests are no longer confined to the Indian Ocean alone. The emergence of alternative Arctic trade routes, expanding energy partnerships, growing trade relationships with Europe and Southeast Asia, and the increasing militarization of maritime chokepoints require India to possess expeditionary naval capabilities capable of operating across multiple theatres simultaneously.

Simultaneously, India must expand its naval aviation capabilities to approximately 300 carrier-capable aircraft, accelerate indigenous submarine development, establish underwater surveillance networks, and invest heavily in oceanographic intelligence. The objective is not maritime hegemony but strategic autonomy, deterrence, and the protection of national interests across a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.

By 2047, India’s maritime destiny will not be determined solely by the length of its coastline but by its ability to project power, secure trade routes, and shape the strategic environment beyond its immediate shores.

Introduction: The Return of Maritime Power

History demonstrates a consistent pattern: nations that control the seas shape global affairs.

From the British Empire to the United States, maritime supremacy has historically translated into economic influence, diplomatic leverage, and military power. Sea control allows nations to secure trade routes, influence distant regions, protect overseas interests, and maintain strategic flexibility during periods of crisis.

India today stands at a similar strategic crossroads.

The country has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies and increasingly seeks a larger role in shaping international affairs. Yet despite these ambitions, India’s strategic culture remains heavily influenced by continental concerns. The unresolved boundary dispute with China, persistent tensions with Pakistan, and historical focus on land warfare have naturally prioritized army and air force modernization.

This continental orientation, while understandable, risks overlooking the reality that India’s future prosperity depends fundamentally upon maritime security.

Over 90 percent of India’s trade by volume and nearly 70 percent by value moves through maritime routes. The majority of India’s energy imports transit vulnerable chokepoints including the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, and the Strait of Malacca. Disruption to any of these routes would have immediate and severe consequences for economic growth, industrial production, and national stability.

At the same time, the strategic environment surrounding India is becoming increasingly complex.

China has undertaken the most ambitious naval expansion program in modern history. The People’s Liberation Army Navy has evolved from a regional force into a global maritime actor with growing capabilities in carrier operations, submarine warfare, long-range precision strike, and expeditionary logistics. Chinese naval deployments in the Indian Ocean have become increasingly routine, supported by a network of ports, logistics facilities, and maritime infrastructure stretching from East Asia to Africa.

The challenge is therefore not merely one of defence. It is one of ensuring that India’s rise as a major power is supported by maritime capabilities commensurate with its ambitions.

Why Aircraft Carriers Still Matter

Few military platforms generate as much debate as aircraft carriers.

Critics frequently argue that advances in missile technology have rendered carriers obsolete. The proliferation of anti-ship ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, long-range drones, and precision-guided munitions has undoubtedly increased the risks associated with carrier operations.

Yet despite these developments, every major maritime power continues to invest heavily in aircraft carriers.

The reason is simple.

Aircraft carriers remain the only platforms capable of providing sustained sovereign air power anywhere in the world without reliance upon foreign bases.

Unlike fixed airfields, carriers are mobile. They can reposition rapidly, operate in international waters, and generate combat air power far from national territory. They provide governments with options that range from humanitarian assistance and disaster relief to high-intensity combat operations.

For India, aircraft carriers possess unique strategic value.

India’s geographic position places it at the center of the Indian Ocean. Carrier battle groups operating from the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, or Southern Indian Ocean can influence maritime traffic across some of the world’s most critical sea lanes. They extend air superiority beyond the range of land-based aircraft and create operational uncertainty for adversaries.

Equally important, aircraft carriers function as instruments of diplomacy.

The arrival of a carrier strike group communicates political commitment in a manner few other military assets can match. It reassures partners, deters adversaries, and signals strategic intent without escalating to open conflict.

As India’s interests expand beyond the subcontinent, carrier aviation will become increasingly important as a tool of both military power and statecraft.

The Strategic Logic Behind Five Aircraft Carriers

India currently operates a limited carrier force. While adequate for regional contingencies, it remains insufficient for sustained operations across multiple theatres.

A five-carrier structure would address this challenge.

Two conventionally powered aircraft carriers should remain dedicated to India’s immediate maritime neighbourhood. One would support the Western Naval Command while the second would support the Eastern Naval Command.

The western carrier would focus on securing the Arabian Sea, protecting energy routes from the Persian Gulf, and maintaining deterrence against Pakistan. The eastern carrier would secure the Bay of Bengal, support operations around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and monitor critical chokepoints leading into Southeast Asia.

The remaining three carriers should be nuclear-powered CATOBAR platforms capable of long-range deployments.

These vessels would form the backbone of India’s expeditionary naval capability, enabling operations throughout the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

Unlike conventional carriers, nuclear-powered vessels possess virtually unlimited endurance. Combined with EMALS technology and CATOBAR launch systems, they can support heavier aircraft, larger air wings, and significantly higher sortie generation rates.

Such a force structure would allow India to maintain continuous carrier availability even during maintenance periods while simultaneously supporting operations in multiple regions.

This represents not an aspiration for prestige but a practical requirement for a nation whose interests increasingly extend far beyond its immediate maritime boundaries.

(To be continued with Sections IV–XII covering Nuclear Carrier Design, 300-Aircraft Naval Air Wing, China Challenge, Submarine Strategy, Arctic Strategy, Maritime Alliances, Industrial Base, Budgetary Analysis, and Final Recommendations.)

 

(Jeet Ghosh is a Geopolitical Analyst)